Pandora’s box is now wide open. Information about the alleged coup attempt within the government has entered the public domain and is no longer confined to rumors or private discussions.
Nearly no one paying attention to “A Coup Undergoing,” an investment pitch I published on July 1, 2026, warning about significant downside risks to the market. I reiterated those concerns in “A Canary in the Coal Mine“ on September 15, 2026, emphasizing that the underlying risks had neither disappeared nor diminished.
A House of Cards
Those downside risks remain very much in place, particularly due to the prevalence of High Concentration Stocks (HCS) and other stocks whose prices appear extremely inflated or manipulated. The situation increasingly resembles a house of cards. Share prices continue to unravel, falling well below previous support levels, while investors remain uncertain about where the bottom may ultimately lie.
The good news is that President Prabowo has delivered the sweeping cabinet and institutional reshuffle that many had anticipated. The move has significantly lowered the prospect of an early presidential election next year and offered a measure of reassurance to investors. Nevertheless, an important source of uncertainty remains. Much will depend on the outcome of what is widely regarded as the most critical unresolved issue: whether Vice President Gibran and his political allies will ultimately be removed from positions of power. A decisive resolution could strengthen market confidence, enhance regulatory oversight, and allow the administration to return its focus to the urgent task of reviving economic growth. Within the coming weeks, the political picture should become considerably clearer.
For investors, the relatively safer options remain companies with strong economic fundamentals. While such stocks are not immune to broader market corrections, they are generally better positioned to weather prolonged volatility. Over the next six months, these fundamentally sound companies will be particularly worth watching, as they are likely to be among the first to rally once the market begins to show convincing signs of a sustained recovery.
By Djoko Santoso Soenoe, an Indonesian activist investor and independent macro strategist focusing on corporate governance and public equity markets. He actively defends minority shareholder interests and writes extensively to oversee market dynamics and governance structures within Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
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