A coup is developing, not merely an attack [to the government] as some observers argued. It is judged by horror in many aspects, by unwillingness of the government officials in directing strategic policies while they know the actual causes of the problems.
Market psychology has been fiercely hammered by bad sentiments across the board since February 2026. It may not recover up until October before a two-year anniversary of presidency, in my judgment. While the government knows the root causes of the problems, it appears unwilling to fix them. If this condition remains, if there is no “radical break” happen to its governance, I bet a 35% probability of a power coup by early 2027, which means markets will only get worse.
“TSM”
The primary drivers are “foreign meddling”. Indonesia market as well as its business elites is heavily skewed toward west policies and opinion, a coordinated attack by the west and or west local alliances is enough to dictate the media and the market movements. Some of you may not feel it, but my decades-long experiences in the market help me understand that the attack has already far-reaching implications, such that letting me to believe it is so structural, systematic and massive [locally known as TSM].
What they want
I have a feeling that they want a new leader who will benefit them politically, economically. Socialism and nationalism are perceived to be against their will. So, who is it? Most likely he is going to be someone who is being a prison by his past wrongdoing. Another candidate I believe you may know him from his past credentials.
“Radical break”
This means a major break in the ministerial cabinets, in new policies, new alliances; new approaches politically and economically that give birth to decisions based on sound fundamental and strategic framework. Only by this market condition will be reversed and likely be willing to bounce back to its normal valuation.
by Djoko Santoso Soenoe
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