“CANARY IN THE COAL MINE”

By Djoko Santoso Soenoe, fairmarkets@yahoo.com.
Activist investor

The phrase “canary in the coal mine” is an idiom that means an early warning sign of danger.
In the past, coal miners would bring canaries into mines because the birds are very sensitive to toxic gases like carbon monoxide. If the canary became sick or died, it signaled that the air was unsafe, giving miners a chance to escape before humans were affected.
Today, the expression is used metaphorically. It refers to a person, event, or situation that serves as a signal of potential problems ahead. For example: “The sudden drop in housing prices was the canary in the coal mine for the financial crisis.”
So, when I say “canary in the coal mine,” it means it’s a small but significant warning that bigger troubles may be coming.

Purbaya the Canary?

A Gerindra party member said that under Purbaya the Ministry of Finance organization was experiencing struggle during his one-year tenure. I think the decision to remove Purbaya is a mistake, it was struggling so far in the ministry due to its rampant corruption and pure governance. It in nature was hard to enforce meritocracy in the system, i.e. putting the right men in the right place. We lost a figure who well understand economy as well as market. We are skeptical with the new Minister, if he has as much fiscal discipline and cold-handed in enforcing good governance as Purbaya’s. The brother of the president, Mr Hasyim Djoyohadikusumo, himself acknowledged that Purbaya performance was extraordinary.

Look at GGRM share price, dropped 6% today (Sept 15, 2026). The tobacco industry has been restructured by Purbaya ever since he came into office a year ago. The industry struggled over 20 years before his appointment despite relatively stable growth in the economy. GGRM share price rose more than double ever since his appointment. Then the trust is crumbled!

“We are developing the foundation of high growth economy. Once strong economic fundamental is well developed, we will achieve 8% growth target. Market will automatically adjust upward according to the progress [of the fundamentals].” This is the summary of Purbaya statements, which perfectly makes sense. He is a rare economist who understands how inter-related correlations affect the market movements.

Pandora’s box broken

“Pandora’s box” is a metaphor that means unleashing a source of endless trouble or complications once something is opened or started.
Today, “opening Pandora’s box” means starting something that seems small or harmless but leads to unexpected, uncontrollable, and often negative consequences. It’s basically a warning that some actions, once taken, can’t be undone and may spiral into bigger problems.

With this canary, pandora box of questions is open. I personally smell a danger in our economy. This is caused by stupidity, negligence, arrogance in handling the overall country management, as a result of “NOT PUTTING THE RIGHT MEN IN THE RIGHT PLACE.”

I already put a warning in my previous opinion (July 1, 2026): “…a new presidential election may be coming in 2027, if no major change happens in government before the year end.” Instead of major change in positions majority of people expect, the president chose a change that many don’t expect! If people discontent then erupt, and provoke a new demand as a result, as I quoted above, then I would say “you are welcome.” I hope this will not happen, but “hope” is NOT A MARKET STRATEGY.